Polymarket | The World's Largest Prediction Market

US recession in 2025?

62%

chance

$2m Vol.

2025 NCAA Tournament Winner

Florida

52%

Houston

48%

$21m Vol.

Next Prime Minister of Canada after the election?

Mark Carney

71%

Pierre Poilievre

30%

Chrystia Freeland

<1%

Jagmeet Singh

<1%

Justin Trudeau

<1%

$35m Vol.

Fed decision in May?

50+ bps decrease

25 bps decrease

28%

No change

67%

25+ bps increase

<1%

$15m Vol.

monthly

Who will acquire TikTok?

Larry Ellison

32%

Oracle

29%

Tim Stokely

22%

Amazon

12%

Microsoft

12%

Frank McCourt

Perplexity AI

Alexis Ohanian

Walmart

Elon Musk

Bobby Kotick

MrBeast

Meta

Steve Mnuchin

AppLovin

X (Twitter)

Sam Altman

Rumble

$2m Vol.

Will TikTok be banned again before May?

60%

chance

$1m Vol.

UFC 314: Volkanovski vs Lopes

Volkanovski vs. Lopes

55%

Chandler vs. Pimblett

42%

Mitchell vs. Silva

27%

Rodriguez vs. Pitbull

64%

Krylov vs. Reyes

63%

Ige vs. Woodson

42%

Xiaonan vs. Jandiroba

42%

Miller vs. Hooper

16%

Dumas vs. Oleksiejczuk

37%

Elkins vs. Erosa

36%

Mudaerji vs. Raposo

65%

Montes vs. Romero

Gore vs. Tulio

Cornolle vs. Cowan

61%

$471k Vol.

How many Fed rate cuts in 2025?

1 (25 bps)

2 (50 bps)

11%

3 (75 bps)

19%

4 (100 bps)

19%

5 (125 bps)

13%

6 (150 bps)

7 (175 bps)

8 or more (200+ bps)

13%

$5m Vol.

Fed emergency rate cut in 2025?

21%

chance

$103k Vol.

Elon out of Trump administration before July?

31%

chance

$482k Vol.

Israel military action against Iran before July?

30%

chance

$181k Vol.

TikTok sale announced before May?

16%

chance

$893k Vol.

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?

24%

chance

$6m Vol.

US military action against Iran before July?

26%

chance

$117k Vol.

US GDP growth in Q1 2025?

>2%

2% - 1%

24%

1% - 0%

36%

0% - (-1%)

19%

-1% - (-2%)

10%

<-2%

$237k Vol.

Will Trump remove tariff on China before May?

chance

$91k Vol.

Mike Waltz out of Trump administration before May?

chance

$283k Vol.

Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025?

chance

$2m Vol.

Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months?

73%

chance

$877k Vol.

U.S. recession before May 2025?

chance

$646k Vol.

Which Party wins most seats in Canadian election?

Liberal Party

71%

Conservative Party

29%

Bloc Québécois

<1%

New Democratic Party

<1%

Green Party

<1%

People's Party

<1%

Other

<1%

$7m Vol.

(Old) Romania Election

Other (incl. Georgescu)

99%

Nicolae Ciucă

<1%

Elena Lasconi

<1%

Mircea Geoană

<1%

Marcel Ciolacu

<1%

George Simion

<1%

$259m Vol.

Romania Presidential Election Winner

Nicușor Dan

39%

George Simion

30%

Victor Ponta

16%

Crin Antonescu

13%

Elena Lasconi

Călin Georgescu

Daniel Funeriu

<1%

Ilie Bolojan

<1%

Anamaria Gavrilă

<1%

Silviu Predoiu

<1%

Other

<1%

Marcel Ciolacu

<1%

Ana Birchall

<1%

Nicolae Ciucă

<1%

Mircea Geoană

<1%

Hunor Kelemen

<1%

Teodor Nițulescu

<1%

Cristian Sima

<1%

Anton Pisaroglu

<1%

Diana Șoșoacă

<1%

Cristian-Vasile Terheș

<1%

Marcela-Lavinia Șandru

<1%

John-Ion Banu-Muscel

<1%

Sebastian-Constantin Popescu

<1%

$111m Vol.

NBA Champion

Oklahoma City Thunder

33%

Boston Celtics

29%

Cleveland Cavaliers

12%

Los Angeles Lakers

Golden State Warriors

Denver Nuggets

LA Clippers

New York Knicks

Houston Rockets

Minnesota Timberwolves

Indiana Pacers

Detroit Pistons

Memphis Grizzlies

Milwaukee Bucks

Orlando Magic

<1%

Atlanta Hawks

<1%

Dallas Mavericks

<1%

Chicago Bulls

<1%

Miami Heat

<1%

Phoenix Suns

<1%

Portland Trail Blazers

<1%

Sacramento Kings

<1%

San Antonio Spurs

<1%

$2b Vol.

Next president of South Korea?

Lee Jae-myung

82%

Kim Moon-soo

Lee Jun-seok

Han Dong-hoon

Hong Joon-pyo

Ahn Cheol-soo

Oh Se-hoon

Kim Dong-yeon

Won Hee-ryong

<1%

Yoo Seong-min

<1%

Kim Kyoung-soo

<1%

Kim Boo-kyum

<1%

Na Kyung-won

<1%

Lee Nak-yon

<1%

Cho Kuk

<1%

$2m Vol.

What price will Bitcoin hit in April?

$200k

<1%

$150k

$120k

$110k

$100k

$95k

20%

$90k

36%

$75k

74%

$70k

42%

$60k

11%

$50k

$40k

$6m Vol.

monthly

What price will Ethereum hit in April?

$8000

<1%

$6000

<1%

$5000

<1%

$4000

$3500

$3000

$2600

$2400

$2200

11%

$2000

23%

$1600

100%

$1400

60%

$1200

25%

$1000

10%

$3m Vol.

monthly

Eurovision Winner 2025

Sweden

33%

Austria

26%

France

12%

Israel

Netherlands

Finland

Estonia

Ukraine

Albania

Belgium

Czechia

Germany

San Marino

Malta

Italy

Australia

<1%

Greece

<1%

United Kingdom

<1%

Spain

<1%

Cyprus

<1%

Denmark

<1%

Ireland

<1%

Latvia

<1%

Lithuania

<1%

Luxembourg

<1%

Norway

<1%

Poland

<1%

Portugal

<1%

Armenia

<1%

Azerbaijan

<1%

Georgia

<1%

Iceland

<1%

Montenegro

<1%

Serbia

<1%

Slovenia

<1%

Switzerland

<1%

Croatia

<1%

$31m Vol.

Lakers vs. Thunder

100%

Lakers

$567k Vol.

daily

What price will Solana hit in April?

$300

<1%

$250

$210

$190

$170

$150

16%

$100

83%

$80

33%

$2m Vol.

monthly

Elon Musk # of tweets April 4-11?

<250

49%

250-274

16%

275-299

11%

300-324

325-349

350-374

375-399

400-424

425-449

450-474

475-499

500-524

525-549

<1%

550-574

<1%

575-599

<1%

600+

<1%

$1m Vol.

weekly

March 2025 Temperature Increase (ºC)

<1.22

<1%

1.22-1.26

<1%

1.27-1.31

<1%

1.32-1.36

74%

1.37-1.41

25%

>1.41

<1%

$2m Vol.

monthly

Bitcoin price on April 11?

>88k

86-88k

84-86k

10%

82-84k

12%

80-82k

13%

78-80k

13%

<78k

42%

$808k Vol.

weekly

Premier League Winner

Liverpool

97%

Arsenal

Nottingham Forest

<1%

Manchester City

<1%

Chelsea

<1%

Newcastle United

<1%

$806m Vol.

Raptors vs. Nets

99%

Raptors

$301k Vol.

daily

What price will XRP hit in April?

$3.50

$3.00

$2.70

14%

$2.50

29%

$2.40

38%

$2.30

50%

$1.90

91%

$1.80

82%

$1.50

44%

$1.00

$1m Vol.

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